Key messages from Octa for 2025:
● In 2025, the implications of the U.S. presidential election will play out in full force.
● A full-scale tariff war between the U.S. and the rest of the world is a major global risk.
● An additional headwind is growing fiscal deficits in the U.S. and Europe.
● Investors in industrialised countries will probably avoid cash as interest rates are generally projected to decline.
● Instead, investors will likely prefer to invest in risky assets like U.S. stocks and crypto.
● Equities may still perform well, but investors should focus on specific sectors and not bet on broad-based growth.
● The commercialisation of AI and increased use of data centres will benefit technological companies as well as energy and utilities.
● Gold will remain a major protective asset as geopolitical risks are not going away.
● The U.S. dollar seems slightly overvalued, at least in the short term. Betting on its continuing rise is risky.
● The risk of a major downward correction in bitcoin is very high in 2025, but if it does take place, it should be treated as a buying opportunity.
2024, a year of geopolitical stress and major political changes, is drawing to a close. It is time to focus on the future and identify new trading opportunities. However, according to Octa broker, the outlook for the global economy is uneven and mixed, 'rife with uncertainties and riddled with challenges', so traders are advised to take a cautious stance. In this article, Octa broker looks at key economic and political developments that will shape the next year and offers exclusive guidance into their potential impact on various asset classes.
'If you were to ask me what will be the key driving theme of 2025, I would say it will be the after-effects of the U.S. presidential elections', says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker, adding that Donald Trump's proposed policies provide more uncertainties than opportunities. Indeed, it is the risk of rising inflation induced by new trade tariffs and immigration policies that separates an optimistic 2025 scenario from a pessimistic one. Before we start analysing the likely scenarios for 2025, let's first look at the current economic conditions.
Current situation
Interest rates in most industrialised economies are currently 75-100 basis points (bps) below their recent peaks. However, real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) are still positive. As Kar Yong Ang explains: 'If history is any guidance, interest rates are still relatively high. In fact, I think they are more restrictive than stimulative and will most likely continue to go down in 2025'. In fact, at the time of writing, the fixed income market (interest rate swaps) was implying a further 50 bps of cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed), 100 bps from the European Central Bank (ECB), 50 bps from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and 50 bps from the Bank of England (BoE). As a result, the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the rest of the world has pulled the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to a multi-month high.
U.S. stocks have performed very well over the past two years. However, the bullish trend in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ is beginning to show signs of exhaustion, especially after the Fed indicated that it intends to slow the pace of future rate cuts.
Gold (XAU) was moving in a very well-defined bullish trend for most of 2024 and set a new all-time high at the end of October. However, the volatility in gold started to increase after the U.S. presidential election brought policy uncertainty. Currently, XAUUSD finds itself in a sideways market, trading range-bound between 2,550 and 2,720, indicating a lack of a clear trend.
Bitcoin (BTC) made headlines in 2024 when its price jumped above $100,000 per coin. A major impulse came in November after Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election fuelled hopes of crypto industry deregulation. However, these hopes have not yet been fulfilled, leaving Bitcoin and other crypto coins at risk of a sharp downward correction.
2025 outlook
Macro and the U.S. dollar
Declining interest rates mean that returns on cash (bank deposits) in most industrialised economies will continue to go down, prompting investors and traders to put their money into riskier assets like equities and cryptocurrencies. 'Another important feature of the current monetary policy outlook is that the Fed's easing cycle will slow relative to the rest of the world. It means that the U.S. Dollar Index [DXY] will likely remain well-supported in 2025’, argues Kar Yong Ang. However, a lot of bullish factors for the U.S. dollar are already priced in, and the greenback has actually started to look somewhat overvalued. 'I'm sceptical about further dollar gains', says Kar Yong Ang, adding that dollar bulls should be very cautious.
If the U.S. plays hardball and implements blanket tariffs, inflation and even recession risks will rise. In this scenario, investors will rush into safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and gold and sell stocks and crypto assets.
Equities
Betting on broad-based growth in U.S. equities is dangerous. Instead, traders should focus on specific industries and sectors. The main theme here is the adoption and commercialisation of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Companies that integrate AI into their core operations and invest in AI talent and infrastructure will gain a competitive edge. Therefore, tech companies are likely to perform well in 2025. By the same token, the increased use of AI and data centres is boosting energy demand, so energy companies and utilities are also likely to shine in 2025.
Gold
'I expect gold to set a new all-time high in 2025. $3,000 per ounce is not impossible. There are too many risks heading our way in 2025, so there will be plenty of demand for safe-haven assets', says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker. Indeed, gold will continue to remain an effective hedge against key political concerns, including government debt levels, inflation, and geopolitical tensions. Furthermore, central banks' demand for gold has already supported gold prices in 2024, and there are no reasons to expect this trend to reverse.
Crypto
The latest rally in crypto looks overextended. It has been driven by sentiment and embedded in forward-looking hopes. 'There is just too much optimism in Bitcoin right now. I think there is a risk of a significant pullback in 2025. But rather than betting on a bearish correction, I would advise using it as a buying opportunity', says Kar Yong Ang.
Wrap-up
Overall, 2025 will be a year of reckoning as the impact of the U.S. presidential elections unfolds, determining the course of future policy. In the worst-case scenario of an all-out trade war, global supply chains would be severely disrupted, leading to significant price increases for consumers, decreased business investment, and a sharp contraction in international trade. Under this scenario, U.S. equities and most other commodity prices would drop. However, should we avoid the worst-case scenario, global central banks will likely continue to cut interest rates, pulling stocks and crypto assets higher.
Our base case scenario is somewhere in the middle. We expect to see a lot of volatility and uncertainty enter the marketplace, but we also expect key players to sort out their differences and find common ground. The AI transformation trend is likely to continue benefiting tech and energy companies. It is highly probable that XAUUSD will establish a new all-time high in 2025, given the likely continued gold purchases by investors and central banks in response to low interest rates, geopolitical risks, and dollar diversification efforts. The greenback will likely reach a major mid-term peak in 2025, so betting on its continuing appreciation is risky.
In case the regulatory outlook for the crypto industry starts to brighten (as seems likely) and the reshuffling of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) yields productive results, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will probably hit new all-time highs—particularly in the second half of the year. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker, concludes: 'Fundamentally, the outlook for the global economy is actually positive, but it's rife with uncertainties and riddled with challenges. I bet Forex volatility in 2025 will be higher than it was in 2024, so there will be plenty of short-term trade opportunities for swing and intraday traders alike'.
About Octa
Octa is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and a variety of services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.
The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.
Since its foundation, Octa has won more than 90 awards, including the 'Most Reliable Broker Global 2024' award from Global Forex Awards and the 'Best Mobile Trading Platform 2024' award from Global Brand Magazine.
This article was written by FL Contributors at
www.forexlive.com.
