AUD/USD made a minor recovery from its 13-month low late on Wednesday, but whether it can muster up the strength for a decent bounce likely sits in the hands of USD/CNH. Although the ASX 200 could be set for a bounce with the Nasdaq reaching a record high and the S&P 500 close to its own ATH.
By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
US inflation data came in as expected, with core CPI rising 2.7% y/y and 0.3% m/m. This is not likely enough to derail a Fed cut next week, although the consensus remains for them to pause in January. But it was enough to send the US dollar higher for a fourth day and let USD/JPY reach a 2-week high.
The Nasdaq 100 reached a record high thanks to gains from Nvidia, Alphabet and tesla. The S&P 500 snapped a 2-day pullback with futures less than a day’s average range beneath its own record high. Yet Dow Jones futures were lower for a fifth day, and it is the mixed performance on Wall Street which means gains on the ASX 200 may be capped (even though it looks set for a bounce).
The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50bp to 3.25% and, as I suspected, signalled a potential pause next year. Citing a “substantially” lower cash rate, 2% inflation and an “economy in excess supply”, the BOC have now switched back to making cash rate decisions on a per-meeting basis.
Beijing announced that they’re considering more yuan weakness to tackle threats of Trump’s tariff risks. Although I’m not sure they really needed to announce it, as they’re seemingly already letting their currency slide. China recently said that nobody wins in a race to the bottom, but that doesn’t mean they’re not prepared to play along. USD/CNH initially rose 0.7% from Wednesday’s low which saw AUD/USD touch a fresh 13-moth low. With AUD/USD tracking yuan weakness very closely, a higher USD/CNH translates to a lower Australian dollar.
Click the website link below to get our Guide to central banks and interest rates in Q4 2024.
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See the expectations for the Fed, ECB, and BOJ...and more importantly, what could drive monetary policy in Q4 and beyond!
A bullish engulfing day formed on USD/CNH, thanks to Beijing’s comments on the yuan and a stronger US dollar. While this saw AUD/USD invalidate its 2022 trendline, it looks like it wants to trade back above it. We also saw a daily close back above the April and August lows with a doji, While this suggests prices may try to bounce, we also need to factor in a higher USD/CNH which could keep AUD/USD under pressure if it makes a move for the 7.3 highs, a break above which could send AUD/USD materially lower. Keep in mind AU jobs figures are released shortly, which could support the Aussie to a degree - as they have a tendency to surprise to the upside. But traders do need to keep an eye on the yuan, because if Beijing let it slide then it could drag AUD/USD lower with it.
Click the website link below to get our exclusive Guide to EUR/USD trading in Q4 2024.
forex.com
Traders still think that the Fed will cut interest rates more aggressively than the ECB, a development that could see EUR/USD test a key resistance level.
It has been over a week since the pullback from its record high, and the ASX is now looking to hold above the weekly VPOC (volume point of control) and monthly pivot point. With two out of the three Wall Street indices are showing strength, the ASX could extend its bounce.
Just keep in mind that Santa’s rally tends to kick into gear from around the 20th of the month, and that leaves room for choppy trade beforehand. For now, bulls could seek dips within the overnight range and target last week’s VAL (value area low at 8462) or the weekly VPOC (8487).
Weak Q3 growth figures paved the way for RBA’s dovish hold earlier this week, and cemented market pricing views of three rate cuts to be delivered in 2025. Even a slightly softer employment report could bolster those bets and bring expectations of the first cut from April to Q1. Unemployment is expected to tick higher to 4.2% from 4.1%, 26k jobs are forecast to be added (up from 15.9k) and the participation rate to remain at a record high of 67.1%. But a word of warnings: Australia’s employment figures have a tendency to surprise to the upside as opposed to the downside, so we may need to see a higher unemployment rate alongside lower participation at a minimum (and preferably and employment change miss) for a heavily sold AUD/USD to head for 63c.
View the full economic calendar
– Written by Matt Simpson
Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge
forex.com
AUD/USD made a minor recovery from its 13-month low late on Wednesday, but whether it can muster up the strength for a decent bounce likely sits in the hands of USD/CNH. Although the ASX 200 could be set for a bounce with the Nasdaq reaching a record...
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
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By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
US inflation data came in as expected, with core CPI rising 2.7% y/y and 0.3% m/m. This is not likely enough to derail a Fed cut next week, although the consensus remains for them to pause in January. But it was enough to send the US dollar higher for a fourth day and let USD/JPY reach a 2-week high.
The Nasdaq 100 reached a record high thanks to gains from Nvidia, Alphabet and tesla. The S&P 500 snapped a 2-day pullback with futures less than a day’s average range beneath its own record high. Yet Dow Jones futures were lower for a fifth day, and it is the mixed performance on Wall Street which means gains on the ASX 200 may be capped (even though it looks set for a bounce).
The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50bp to 3.25% and, as I suspected, signalled a potential pause next year. Citing a “substantially” lower cash rate, 2% inflation and an “economy in excess supply”, the BOC have now switched back to making cash rate decisions on a per-meeting basis.
Beijing announced that they’re considering more yuan weakness to tackle threats of Trump’s tariff risks. Although I’m not sure they really needed to announce it, as they’re seemingly already letting their currency slide. China recently said that nobody wins in a race to the bottom, but that doesn’t mean they’re not prepared to play along. USD/CNH initially rose 0.7% from Wednesday’s low which saw AUD/USD touch a fresh 13-moth low. With AUD/USD tracking yuan weakness very closely, a higher USD/CNH translates to a lower Australian dollar.
Click the website link below to get our Guide to central banks and interest rates in Q4 2024.
Central Banks Q4 2024 Market Outlook - FOREX.com US
See the expectations for the Fed, ECB, and BOJ...and more importantly, what could drive monetary policy in Q4 and beyond!
AUD/USD, USD/CNH technical analysis:
A bullish engulfing day formed on USD/CNH, thanks to Beijing’s comments on the yuan and a stronger US dollar. While this saw AUD/USD invalidate its 2022 trendline, it looks like it wants to trade back above it. We also saw a daily close back above the April and August lows with a doji, While this suggests prices may try to bounce, we also need to factor in a higher USD/CNH which could keep AUD/USD under pressure if it makes a move for the 7.3 highs, a break above which could send AUD/USD materially lower. Keep in mind AU jobs figures are released shortly, which could support the Aussie to a degree - as they have a tendency to surprise to the upside. But traders do need to keep an eye on the yuan, because if Beijing let it slide then it could drag AUD/USD lower with it.
Click the website link below to get our exclusive Guide to EUR/USD trading in Q4 2024.
EUR USD Q4 2024 Market Outlook - FOREX.com US
Traders still think that the Fed will cut interest rates more aggressively than the ECB, a development that could see EUR/USD test a key resistance level.
ASX 200 (SPI 200 future) technical analysis:
It has been over a week since the pullback from its record high, and the ASX is now looking to hold above the weekly VPOC (volume point of control) and monthly pivot point. With two out of the three Wall Street indices are showing strength, the ASX could extend its bounce.
Just keep in mind that Santa’s rally tends to kick into gear from around the 20th of the month, and that leaves room for choppy trade beforehand. For now, bulls could seek dips within the overnight range and target last week’s VAL (value area low at 8462) or the weekly VPOC (8487).
Economic events in focus (AEDT)
Weak Q3 growth figures paved the way for RBA’s dovish hold earlier this week, and cemented market pricing views of three rate cuts to be delivered in 2025. Even a slightly softer employment report could bolster those bets and bring expectations of the first cut from April to Q1. Unemployment is expected to tick higher to 4.2% from 4.1%, 26k jobs are forecast to be added (up from 15.9k) and the participation rate to remain at a record high of 67.1%. But a word of warnings: Australia’s employment figures have a tendency to surprise to the upside as opposed to the downside, so we may need to see a higher unemployment rate alongside lower participation at a minimum (and preferably and employment change miss) for a heavily sold AUD/USD to head for 63c.
- 08:45 – NZ retail sales
- 09:15 – RBA Assistant Governor Jones speaks
- 10:50 – JP foreigner bond, stock purchases
- 11:30 – AU employment
View the full economic calendar
– Written by Matt Simpson
Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge
AUD/USD support dependent on USD/CNH resistance, ASX set to bounce?
AUD/USD made a minor recovery from its 13-month low late on Wednesday, but whether it can muster up the strength for a decent bounce likely sits in the hands of USD/CNH. Although the ASX 200 could be set for a bounce with the Nasdaq reaching a record...
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
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