RSS BOE's Breeden: Recent evidence further supports case to withdraw policy restrictiveness

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 RSS BOE's Breeden: Recent evidence further supports case to withdraw policy restrictiveness

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This is a notable comments as Breeden voted with the 6-3 majority to keep rates unchanged at 4.75% in December. The market is pricing in a 65% chance of a cut on February 6 but that's looking too low.

I think one of the better trades of 2025 will be a 'catch-down' trade in the pound as rates are cut.

Other comments:

  • Difficult to know how quickly to remove restrictive policy
  • Some tentative evidence that activity is starting to weaken, though we expect it to pick back up again
  • Upside inflation scenario has now subsided sufficiently to no longer be a core consideration in setting policy

The pound hasn't moved on the comments but has struggled this week as the market sorts out the coming economic weakness and rate cuts.

More:

  • We are monitoring what happens in the gilt market
  • A lot of gilt price moves reflect global factors
  • Gilt market moves have been orderly so far, so far so good
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
 
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