China's recent economic data for November presents a varied outlook on growth. While industrial production accelerated slightly, and the decline in house prices moderated, retail sales growth decelerated, underscoring the necessity for further stimulus to maintain sustainable advancement.
According to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, industrial production increased by 5.4% compared to the same month the previous year, marginally outpacing October's 5.3% rise. This performance was in line with forecasts.
Conversely, retail sales growth weakened more than anticipated, dropping to 3.0% in November from 4.8% in October, while expectations had predicted a 4.6% growth.
From January to November, fixed asset investment grew by 3.3% year-on-year, a slight deceleration from the 3.4% growth observed from January to October.
The National Bureau of Statistics also noted that the job market maintained stability throughout the first eleven months of 2024, with the unemployment rate steady at 5.0% in November. Additionally, the decline in commercial residential property prices in 70 major cities slowed in November.
Economists from Capital Economics anticipate that the recent slowdown will likely be temporary, projecting a rebound in growth in the coming months as policy support is intensified.
However, experts express skepticism about the ability of stimulus measures to bring about anything more than a short-term recovery, particularly as sustained export demand could diminish once President Trump enacts some of his tariff threats.
Despite subdued overall activity data, ING economist Lynn Song sees a positive indication that the real estate market could be stabilizing. With only one month of data remaining, it appears China is on track to achieve its "around 5%" growth target for 2024, the economist noted.
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