- Prior decision
- Deposit facility rate 3.00% vs 3.00% expected
- Prior 3.25%
- Main refinancing rate 3.15% vs 3.15% expected
- Prior 3.40%
- Marginal lending facility %
- Prior 3.65%
- Disinflation process is well on track
- Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that it will settle at around 2% target on a sustained basis
- Domestic inflation has edged down but remains high, mostly due to wages and prices in certain sectors
- Will discontinue reinvestments under PEPP at the end of 2024
- To follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining appropriate policy stance
- ECB is is not pre-committing to a particular rate path
- Decisions will be based on assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission
- Full statement
The decision is as per expected, so it isn't really a surprise. However, the more dovish component is the lower projections on the economy as the ECB now sees the euro area economy growing by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027. That compares to the September projections of 0.8% in 2024, 1.3% in 2025, and 1.5% in 2026.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.