Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The test of the 1.0402 price level coincided with when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark. This confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro, resulting in a 35-pip decline.
The currency market remains under pressure, and the euro, trapped within a horizontal channel, risks encountering additional challenges. Data on Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) may trigger short-term fluctuations, but in the long term, they are unlikely to significantly influence the stability of the single currency. Investors hoping for positive news may be disappointed, given the uncertain economic situation in the region. Moreover, low consumer confidence in the eurozone may also serve as a cautionary signal. A decline in consumer trust could impact demand and, consequently, economic growth. This factor will be key when making decisions regarding the sale of the euro.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the price area of 1.0385 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.0435. At the 1.0435 level, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Expecting euro growth in the first half of the day is only feasible if strong data from the eurozone is released.
Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.0347 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposing levels of 1.0385 and 1.0435.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0347 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0297, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20–25 pips from the level. Selling pressure on the pair could return at any moment.
Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.0385 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposing levels of 1.0347 and 1.0297.
Chart Notes
- Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.
Important Note for Beginner Traders
- Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
- Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
- If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
- Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
- A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.
