Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0385 level occurred when the MACD indicator was already significantly above the zero mark, which, in my opinion, limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I refrained from buying the euro.
In the second half of the day, focus will shift to data on changes in U.S. consumer spending and income levels, as well as the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index—a key inflation measure for the Federal Reserve. If the data comes in strong, it could pressure the euro, which showed some strength in the morning. Additionally, FOMC member Mary Daly's speech should be monitored. She may share her economic outlook and views on monetary policy. Comments about the direction of interest rates, particularly suggesting that rate cuts may not be as aggressive, could create additional volatility in the currency and financial markets, especially for the euro.
For intraday strategies, I will primarily rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible at the 1.0401 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0435. At 1.0435, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point move from the entry point. A euro rally today can be expected only after weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0375 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.0401 and 1.0435 levels can then be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Selling the euro is possible after breaking below the 1.0375 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0335. At this level, I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 point move upward. Pressure on the pair will return with strong U.S. data.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0401 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.0375 and 1.0335 can then be expected.
Chart Overview
- Thin green line – Entry price for buying the instrument.
- Thick green line – Target price for taking profit or manually fixing gains, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – Entry price for selling the instrument.
- Thick red line – Target price for taking profit or manually fixing gains, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator – When entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.
Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders
- Exercise caution when entering the market, especially before key fundamental reports are released. Staying out of the market during such times can help you avoid sharp price fluctuations.
- If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you risk losing your entire deposit quickly, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.
- Always have a clear trading plan, like the example provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.
