Markets:
- Gold rose $5.18 or 0.20% at 2652.50
- Silver fell -$0.03 or -0.12% at $30.51
- WTI crude oil fell -$0.71 or -1.00% at $70.58
- Bitcoin soared to another record level with the price trading at $106,199 up $1,772 but still off the high from the day at $107,821.
US yields were mixed after rising each day yesterday
- 2 year yield 253% up 0/4 bps.
- 10-year yields 4.403%, up 0.2 bps
- 30 year yield 4.604%, unchanged
The US stock indices were mixed today with the Dow falling for the 8th day in a row. The Nasdaq closed at a record level:
- Dow industrial average fell -110.58 points or -0.25% at 43717.48
- S&P index rose 22.9 points or 0.38% at 6074.08
- NASDAQ index rose 247.17 points or 1.24% at 20173.89
In the forex, the major indices were mixed on the day. The USD was the strongest vs the JPY (by 0.37%) and weakest vs the GBP (-0.60%) and NZD (-0.48%). The DXY was down -0.11% on the day overall :
- Fell -0.14% vs the EUR
- Fell -0.60% vs the GBP
- Rose 0.37% vs the JPY
- Rose 0.29% vs the CHF
- Rose 0.11% vs the CAD
- Fell -0.16% vs the AUD
- Fell -0.48% vs the NZD
Fundamentally, Pres. elect Trump announced a $100B investment over 4 years by Masayoshi Son and the Softbank Group that will create 100K jobs. The announcement gave stocks a boost as the flow of investment funds continues to favor the US and the technology innovation.
The Empire Fed manufacturing index came in at +0.2% which was lower than the 10.0 expected.
The decline was quite a drop from 31.2 but the prior month is looking like it was a big outlier, perhaps related to the election. The good news for the Fed was that pricing indications are declining the bad news is that new orders are at a six-month low. Another notable rise is in inventories, which rose at the highest pace since early 2023 while the future measure of inventories is the highest since early 2022; both likely on stockpile building ahead of potential tariffs.
In other data, the latest Flash US S&P Global PMI data showed mixed results. The Services PMI surged to 58.5 (vs. 55.7 expected), marking a 38-month high and up from 56.1 previously. The Composite PMI also rose to 56.6, a 33-month high, compared to 54.9 prior. However, the Manufacturing PMI disappointed, falling to 48.3 (vs. 49.7 prior), hitting a 3-month low.
On the inflation front, overall price pressures cooled, with service sector inflation dropping to a 4.5-year low. In contrast, manufacturing saw input costs spike to a 2-year high. Additionally, supplier delivery times are lengthening again, signaling further strain in the supply chain.
it will be interesting to see how the Trump manufacturing mandates will impact the manufacturng indices going forward with most of the US economy be service-oriented.
Technically,
- EURUSD: THe EURUSD remains just below its 200 hour MA at 1.05252. The price is currently trading at 1.0510 going in to the close. That MA has been a ceiling for the pair going back to last Tuesday (with 7 separate tests). Staying below, keeps the sellers in control Move above and their should be more upside probing with the 38.2% of the November range at 1.05628 as the next target
- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD traded higher form most of the day after better data today. The price extended above a swing area up to 1.2676 but stalled ahead of the 100 hour MA near 1.2700. That is also near the 38.2% of the move down from the November high. The 1.2700 level will be the key barometer in the new trading day.
- USDJPY: The USDJPY traded to the highest level since November 26 on the better PMI data, but could not sustain upside momentum. The price rotated lower off the highs but will need to go below 153.88 and then the 61.8% at 153.647 to give the sellers more confifence. However, a move below the swing area at 153.28 to 153.46 to really disappoint the buyers and put the sellers more in control.
- AUDUSD: The AUDUSD tested the falling 100-hour MA on the topside but could not sustain upside momentum. That MA comes in at 0.6373 and will need to be broken to increase the bullish bias. A move above that will still have the 200 hour MA at 0.6398 to get to and thrrough to give the buyers more control and confidence. Absent that, and the sellers are still in play.
- NZDUSD: The NZDUSD is also testing its falling 100-hour MA on the topside. That MA on the NZDUSD comes in at 0.57794. Get and stay above is needed to target the swig level at 0.5797 and then the 200-hour MA at 0.58145. Fail on getting above those levels keeps the sellers in firm control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at
www.forexlive.com.
