RSS ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, yen slumps

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 RSS ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, yen slumps

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Before we get to the Bank of Japan news a quick trip to New Zealand. Q3 GDP data were released today, with a huge 1% contraction q/q, much worse than expected, and a 1.5% contraction y/y, also much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand are not scheduled to meet again until February 19. Expectations for a 50bp rate cut at that meeting have heightened (and further cuts to follow in subsequent meetings).

I’d urge some perspective on this. Q3 data covered July, August and September. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cutting cycle commenced in August, then continued in November and December. It’ll take time for these cuts to feed into the economy. There are some expectations that Q3 will be the nadir and Q4 should show growth. We won’t see that data (Q4 GDP) until March (!) but we did get a wee sign of ‘green shoots’ in later data released today. The ANZ Business Survey for December showed activity at firms improved to a fresh 10-year high during the month.

NZD/USD added to its FOMC/Powell slump, falling to lows under 0.5610 before showing some sign of stabilising. AUD/USD was dragged down a little alongside to ping 0.6200.

The Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.25%, with an 8-1 vote. Board member Naoki Tamura, a policy hawk, dissented. He proposed raising rates to 0.5%, citing rising inflationary risks. Next up is Governor Ueda’s press conference, due at 0630 GMT / 0130 US Eastern time. I suspect Ueda might sound a more hawkish note than the Statement did. Today was a pause, not the end of the Bank’s normalisation cycle.

The yen weakened, adding to its losses from FOMC/Powell on Wednesday, US time. USD/JPY traded up to highs circa 155.44.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
 
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