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- Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (Nov) -0.3% (expected 0.1%, prior 0.1%)
- Japan data - Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)-2.2% (expected -2.3%, prior -2.3%)
- The USD has begun the week very soft
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- Trump to declare a National Energy Emergency - will enable him to use new powers
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- Reports that a Tesla vehicle on autopilot has crashed into a retail store
- China's Vice President Han Zheng meets Musk and also Vance
- Its started - the Fed blackout period, that is
- Trump says he'll sign nearly 100 executive orders within hours of taking office
- Apple has cut the price of some iPhone models in China - government subsidy announced
- 2 reasons (and others) Barclays still like USD/JPY
- Recapping Japan’s core machinery orders in November, results exceeding expectations
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1886 (vs. estimate at 7.3353)
- PBOC sets one and five year loan prime rates unchanged
- Bank of Japan expected to raise rates this week - but there is a hurdle to overcome first
- Bank of America survey shows long US dollar is now considered the most crowded trade
- UK home asking prices show biggest early-year rise since 2020
- Japan November machine orders rocket higher: +3.4% m/m (expected -0.4%) +10.3% y/y (+5.6%)
- JP Morgan forecasts a PBOC RRR and rate cut after Lunar New Year
- PBOC may cut RRR before the Lunar New Year holiday
- Nomura are expecting a March Fed rate cut then a US inflationary shock due to tariffs
- Reminder - US markets are closed on Monday, January 20, 2025
- Trump spoke at a rally - hinted at action on immigration and energy (nothing on tariffs)
- Leaks around Trump's 'day one' executive orders have not mentioned tariffs at all
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 20 January, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- Trump to issue executive orders on immigration, energy, government hiring policies soon
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News crossed early via a Wall Street Journal report that while Trump was planning a number of executive orders within hours of being sworn in as President on Monday, US time (he is being sworn in at noon US Eastern time) he would not be issuing orders on tariffs. The Journal reported this on the basis of unnamed sources briefed on a call from Stephen Miller, Trump’s incoming White House deputy chief of staff for policy. Over the session here ‘risk’ FX moved higher against the USD. Whether the report turns out to be correct is the next question. If not it’ll set up a retrace higher for USD. A sharp one I’d suggest. Something to eye in the hours ahead.
Other news revolved around the People’s Bank of China leaving China’s benchmark lending rates unchanged at the monthly fixing on Monday. A weakening yuan has limited PBoC monetary easing options a little. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.1%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 3.6%. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.
There was little yen-related news but JPY took a big stick to the weaker USD with gusto. USD/JPY popped initially to highs above 156.50 but fell back to lows under 155.75 at one stage.
Back to Trump’s executive orders. Later news focused on Trump poised to invoke emergency powers as part of his plan to unleash domestic energy production (see bullets above).
Note that Monday is a US market holiday. I’ve posted a run down on market closures (some futures markets are opened for some trading on Monday):
USD/JPY update:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.