KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Gold Drops Amid Hawkish Fed, Bond Yields Surge.
- Silver Faces Pressure Below Key 200-Day SMA.
- Crude Oil Rises on Stimulus, Demand Expectations.
- Natural Gas Falls Amid Milder Weather Forecasts.
INTRODUCTION
Gold and silver prices continue their downward trend, with gold testing the $2,625 mark due to rising US bond yields and a hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. Conversely, crude oil prices are showing signs of an upward trajectory, bolstered by expectations of increased global demand and economic stimulus measures.
Gold Market Analysis
Gold Prices Weighed Down by Elevated Bond Yields
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its downward slide, falling to $2,625 during early European trading, testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The decline reflects continued selling pressure following Friday’s peak of $2,665.
The Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone, signaling slower interest rate cuts in 2025, has driven US Treasury bond yields higher, diminishing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Additionally, improved market sentiment has reduced safe-haven demand for the yellow metal, though geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, may provide some support.
The US Dollar (USD), remaining on the defensive below last week’s two-year high, has slightly eased gold’s losses. Key US economic data, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due later this week, could influence further price movements.
Technical Overview
Moving Averages:
- Exponential:
- MA 10: 2630.71 | Bearish
- MA 20: 2633.53 | Bearish
- MA 50: 2636.52 | Bearish
- Simple:
- MA 10: 2626.08 | Bullish
- MA 20: 2637.89 | Bearish
- MA 50: 2652.81 | Bearish
Indicators:
- RSI: 48.23 (Neutral)
- Stochastic Oscillator: 63.53 (Neutral)
Resistance and Support Levels:
- R1: 2699.06 | R2: 2732.79
- S1: 2589.87 | S2: 2556.14
Trade Suggestion:
- Action: Limit Sell
- Entry: 2639.08
- Take Profit: 2595.00
- Stop Loss: 2665.25
Crude Oil Market Analysis
Crude Oil Prices Rise Amid Higher Demand Expectations
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil trades near $73.50 per barrel, supported by colder weather in the United States and Europe, which is expected to increase heating oil demand. China’s economic stimulus measures are also fueling optimism, as Beijing ramps up funding through ultra-long-dated treasury bonds to boost business investment and consumer spending.
Additionally, geopolitical factors, including anticipated stricter sanctions on Iran under the new US administration, may reduce Iran’s oil exports by up to 300,000 barrels per day, further tightening global supply.
Technical Overview
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