The price of gold may attempt to further retrace the decline from the December high ($2726) as it extends the series of higher highs and lows from the start of the week.
By : David Song, Strategist
The price of gold may attempt to further retrace the decline from the December high ($2726) as it extends the series of higher highs and lows from the start of the week, but bullion may face range bound conditions as the 50-Day SMA ($2650) no longer reflects a positive slope.
The price of gold extends the rebound from the weekly low ($2615) to stage a three-day rally, and the threat of a policy error by major central banks may keep precious metal afloat as it serves as an alternative to fiat currencies.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
In turn, developments coming out of the US may sway the price of gold as the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is anticipated to show a 160K rise in December compared to the 227K expansion the month prior, and signs of slower job growth may encourage the Federal Reserve to further unwind its restrictive policy as ‘the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.9 percent’ at the end of 2025.
With that said, gold may continue to hold below pre-US election prices as the Fed keeps the door open to implement lower interest rates, but a higher-than-expected NFP print may fuel the recent rebound in bullion should it boost speculation of a policy error.
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
US Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Stages Three-Day Rally
EUR/USD Weakness Brings January Opening Range in Focus
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Preview (DEC 2024)
USD/JPY Clears December High Ahead of US NFP Report
— Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on X at @DavidJSong
Click the website link below to read our Guide to central banks and interest rates in 2025
cityindex.com
With the Fed signaling cautious rate cuts and the ECB focusing on growth risks, major central banks face pivotal decisions. How will these policies shape FX trends in 2025?
cityindex.com
The price of gold may attempt to further retrace the decline from the December high ($2726) as it extends the series of higher highs and lows from the start of the week.
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
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By : David Song, Strategist
Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD
The price of gold may attempt to further retrace the decline from the December high ($2726) as it extends the series of higher highs and lows from the start of the week, but bullion may face range bound conditions as the 50-Day SMA ($2650) no longer reflects a positive slope.
Gold Price Recovery Eyes December High
The price of gold extends the rebound from the weekly low ($2615) to stage a three-day rally, and the threat of a policy error by major central banks may keep precious metal afloat as it serves as an alternative to fiat currencies.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
In turn, developments coming out of the US may sway the price of gold as the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is anticipated to show a 160K rise in December compared to the 227K expansion the month prior, and signs of slower job growth may encourage the Federal Reserve to further unwind its restrictive policy as ‘the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.9 percent’ at the end of 2025.
With that said, gold may continue to hold below pre-US election prices as the Fed keeps the door open to implement lower interest rates, but a higher-than-expected NFP print may fuel the recent rebound in bullion should it boost speculation of a policy error.
XAU/USD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
- The price of gold may attempt to test the December high ($2726) as it carves a series of higher highs and lows, with a break/close above the $2730 (100% Fibonacci extension) bringing the November high ($2762) on the radar.
- A breach above $2790 (50% Fibonacci extension) opens up $2850 (61.8% Fibonacci extension), but failure to a break/close above the $2730 (100% Fibonacci extension) may keep the price of gold within the November range.
- Lack of momentum to hold above the $2630 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to $2660 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) zone may push the price of gold back towards $2590 (100% Fibonacci extension), with the next area of interest coming in around the December low ($2584).
Additional Market Outlooks
US Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Stages Three-Day Rally
EUR/USD Weakness Brings January Opening Range in Focus
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Preview (DEC 2024)
USD/JPY Clears December High Ahead of US NFP Report
— Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on X at @DavidJSong
Click the website link below to read our Guide to central banks and interest rates in 2025
Central Banks FY 2025 Market Outlook - City Index AU
With the Fed signaling cautious rate cuts and the ECB focusing on growth risks, major central banks face pivotal decisions. How will these policies shape FX trends in 2025?
Gold Price Recovery Eyes December High
The price of gold may attempt to further retrace the decline from the December high ($2726) as it extends the series of higher highs and lows from the start of the week.
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
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