Gold is testing critical resistance, silver continues to climb after breaking its downtrend, and bitcoin consolidates before another potential surge. With technical and momentum signals aligning, could the stage be set for a decisive breakout across these assets?
By : David Scutt, Market Analyst
Returning US inflation to acceptable levels appears to have stalled, downside labour market risks have receded, yet the Fed has guided markets towards another 25bps cut in December. It’s almost like incoming data doesn’t matter. In China and Europe, further monetary stimulus has been flagged, rolled out to thwart downside risks to activity next year.
With policy settings in the three largest economies moving in the same direction, even before the prospect of additional fiscal stimulus is considered, the potential backdrop of elevated inflation and expanding money supply plays into the hands of those looking for assets to hedge the risk of currency debasement. As such, it comes as no surprise that gold, silver and bitcoin have perked up over the past week.
Source: TradingView
Gold has enjoyed a strong rally since Monday after a period of consolidation over the preceding two weeks, with China’s latest stimulus announcement helping to complete a three-candle morning star pattern on the daily timeframe. Since, gold has broken back above the important 50-day moving average, seeing it push up and hold beneath horizontal resistance at $2720, a level the price did plenty of work either side of earlier this year.
What happens next looms as important.
If gold can break and close through $2720, longs could be stablished above with a tight stop beneath for protection targeting a run towards the record highs at $2790. While not a definitive signal at this stage, momentum indicators such as RSI (14) and MACD have turned higher, making the inclination to hold a bullish bias near-term from both a technical and fundamental perspective.
However, if the price cannot break through $2720, the setup could be flipped with shorts initiated below with stop above for protection. Under this scenario, possible targets include $2676.50, 50-day moving average or $2625, the latter a zone that flushed out dip buyers either side of month-end.
Click the website link below to get our exclusive Guide to gold trading in Q4 2024.
cityindex.com
After a strong move to record highs in Q3, the outlook for Gold remains optimistic heading into the Q4, supported by the potential for ongoing central bank purchases.
Source: TradingView
The silver stalemate discussed last Friday eventually played out as favoured, with the price breaking above downtrend resistance before eventually running into sellers at $32.18. That’s the first topside level of note for those considering silver setups, with $33.10 and $34.87 the next after that.
With RSI (14) and MACD generating bullish signals on momentum, and the price remaining in an uptrend established on November 28, the near-term bias favours buying dips and topside breaks.
For those considering long setups, support levels to monitor include the 50-day moving average and former downtrend resistance located today around $31.50. If either of those levels were to be broken, the bullish bias would be invalidated.
Source: TradingView
After an initial bullish foray above $100,000 earlier this month, bitcoin futures have been consolidating in recent days, resuming its grind higher within the uptrend established in early November. That’s a positive sign for those looking for another potential run higher.
While the divergence between price and RSI (14) persists, warning bullish momentum may be waning, it’s notable RSI (14) has broken the downtrend it was sitting in – perhaps the tide is turning? MACD is trending lower, as yet unable to confirm the potential bullish signal.
Despite the mixed momentum picture, the bias remains to buy dips if the price remains above uptrend support. Today, it’s located around $96,550. A pullback towards the uptrend would allow for longs to be established with a tight stop beneath for protection, targeting a return to the record highs at $103,636.
Alternatively, if the price were to break above the current record , another setup would be to buy with a stop beneath targeting another run higher. Rather than extension targets that some prefer to use, the preference in this setup would be to wait for an obvious topping signal or pattern before considering whether to cut or hold.
If the uptrend were to be broken, the bullish bias would be invalidated, opening the door for bearish setups.
– Written by David Scutt
Follow David on Twitter @scutty
cityindex.com
Gold is testing critical resistance, silver continues to climb after breaking its downtrend, and bitcoin consolidates before another potential surge. With technical and momentum signals aligning, could the stage be set for a decisive breakout across...
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
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By : David Scutt, Market Analyst
- Gold hovers near $2720 resistance after breaking above its 50DMA
- Silver extends rally, targeting $33.10 as momentum builds
- Bitcoin consolidates near $100,000, holding within its uptrend
Overview
Returning US inflation to acceptable levels appears to have stalled, downside labour market risks have receded, yet the Fed has guided markets towards another 25bps cut in December. It’s almost like incoming data doesn’t matter. In China and Europe, further monetary stimulus has been flagged, rolled out to thwart downside risks to activity next year.
With policy settings in the three largest economies moving in the same direction, even before the prospect of additional fiscal stimulus is considered, the potential backdrop of elevated inflation and expanding money supply plays into the hands of those looking for assets to hedge the risk of currency debasement. As such, it comes as no surprise that gold, silver and bitcoin have perked up over the past week.
Gold perks up after extended consolidation
Source: TradingView
Gold has enjoyed a strong rally since Monday after a period of consolidation over the preceding two weeks, with China’s latest stimulus announcement helping to complete a three-candle morning star pattern on the daily timeframe. Since, gold has broken back above the important 50-day moving average, seeing it push up and hold beneath horizontal resistance at $2720, a level the price did plenty of work either side of earlier this year.
What happens next looms as important.
If gold can break and close through $2720, longs could be stablished above with a tight stop beneath for protection targeting a run towards the record highs at $2790. While not a definitive signal at this stage, momentum indicators such as RSI (14) and MACD have turned higher, making the inclination to hold a bullish bias near-term from both a technical and fundamental perspective.
However, if the price cannot break through $2720, the setup could be flipped with shorts initiated below with stop above for protection. Under this scenario, possible targets include $2676.50, 50-day moving average or $2625, the latter a zone that flushed out dip buyers either side of month-end.
Click the website link below to get our exclusive Guide to gold trading in Q4 2024.
Gold Q4 2024 Market Outlook - City Index AU
After a strong move to record highs in Q3, the outlook for Gold remains optimistic heading into the Q4, supported by the potential for ongoing central bank purchases.
Silver squeezing higher
Source: TradingView
The silver stalemate discussed last Friday eventually played out as favoured, with the price breaking above downtrend resistance before eventually running into sellers at $32.18. That’s the first topside level of note for those considering silver setups, with $33.10 and $34.87 the next after that.
With RSI (14) and MACD generating bullish signals on momentum, and the price remaining in an uptrend established on November 28, the near-term bias favours buying dips and topside breaks.
For those considering long setups, support levels to monitor include the 50-day moving average and former downtrend resistance located today around $31.50. If either of those levels were to be broken, the bullish bias would be invalidated.
Bitcoin bulls eye record run
Source: TradingView
After an initial bullish foray above $100,000 earlier this month, bitcoin futures have been consolidating in recent days, resuming its grind higher within the uptrend established in early November. That’s a positive sign for those looking for another potential run higher.
While the divergence between price and RSI (14) persists, warning bullish momentum may be waning, it’s notable RSI (14) has broken the downtrend it was sitting in – perhaps the tide is turning? MACD is trending lower, as yet unable to confirm the potential bullish signal.
Despite the mixed momentum picture, the bias remains to buy dips if the price remains above uptrend support. Today, it’s located around $96,550. A pullback towards the uptrend would allow for longs to be established with a tight stop beneath for protection, targeting a return to the record highs at $103,636.
Alternatively, if the price were to break above the current record , another setup would be to buy with a stop beneath targeting another run higher. Rather than extension targets that some prefer to use, the preference in this setup would be to wait for an obvious topping signal or pattern before considering whether to cut or hold.
If the uptrend were to be broken, the bullish bias would be invalidated, opening the door for bearish setups.
– Written by David Scutt
Follow David on Twitter @scutty
Gold, Silver, Bitcoin: Momentum builds as bulls eye breakouts
Gold is testing critical resistance, silver continues to climb after breaking its downtrend, and bitcoin consolidates before another potential surge. With technical and momentum signals aligning, could the stage be set for a decisive breakout across...
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
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