Fundamental Overview
Gold dropped back inside the previous range following some hotter than expected US inflation figures.
In the bigger picture, the market’s pricing remains largely unchanged around three rate cuts by the end of 2025 but the rise in real yields is weighing on the market due to stronger growth and stickier inflation expectations.
Moreover, tomorrow we have the FOMC decision and although the central bank will likely match the market’s pricing, we could have an overall hawkish event. The market participants might want to err on the defensive side going into the event which could limit the upside in gold.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that gold dropped all the way back to the previous consolidation levels. We have now a bigger range between the 2721
resistance and the 2600 support. The market participants will likely continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is now consolidating below the resistance of the previous range. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the 2600 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally back into the 2721 resistance.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the sellers will look for a drop from these levels, while the buyers will look for a break to the upside to target the next resistance. The red lines define the
average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today, we get the US Retail Sales data. Tomorrow, we have the FOMC Policy Decision. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE data.
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This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at
www.forexlive.com.
