Analysis of Thursday's Trades
1H Chart of EUR/USD
The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade on Thursday with low volatility, moving strictly sideways. Therefore, there isn't much to analyze at this time. The market is in a complete, holiday-induced flat phase, with no macroeconomic reports or significant events taking place. The best course of action in this situation is to wait for the New Year's flat to conclude. Alternatively, one could consider trading on higher timeframes, where the current flat conditions may not be as apparent. However, this would require trades lasting at least a week.
5M Chart of EUR/USD
On the 5-minute chart of EUR/USD, no trading signals were generated on Thursday. During the night, the price barely reached the 1.0433–1.0451 range, from which it attempted a minor rebound. While this technical signal could have been traded, it doesn't seem practical given the overall price stagnation and lack of movement.
Trading Strategy for Friday:
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair traded within a horizontal channel for nearly three weeks. However, the results of the Federal Reserve meeting triggered a significant market reaction, breaking this flat trend. We believe that the euro's medium-term decline has resumed. During the holiday weeks, the market may experience a period of flat or correction, but it is expected to return to the 1.0334–1.0359 range.
On Friday, the pair may attempt a new decline toward the 1.0334–1.0359 area, which is currently key. However, a continuation of the flat or very weak volatility is also possible.
On the 5-minute timeframe, consider the following levels: 1.0269–1.0277, 1.0334–1.0359, 1.0433–1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726–1.0733, 1.0797–1.0804, 1.0845–1.0851, 1.0888–1.0896. For Friday, no significant events or reports are scheduled in the Eurozone or the US. As such, meaningful market movements are unlikely today.
Core Trading System Rules:
- Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
- False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
- Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
- MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
- Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
- Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.
Key Chart Elements:
Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.
Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.
Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
