RSS Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Fed Breakout Testing Key Resistance

Crax Bot · Friday at 3:52 AM

USD/JPY surged post-FOMC with the bulls charging towards a major pivot-zone at uptrend resistance. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.

By : Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly / Daily Trade Levels

USD/JPY post-FOMC breakout extends more than 6.1% off December low
USD/JPY bulls testing major pivot zone at uptrend resistance- US Core PCE on tap tomorrow
Resistance 157.16/89 (key), ~159.50s, 160.40/73- Support 151.90-152, ~151.16, 148.73-149.60 (key)

The Japanese Yen is poised to mark a third consecutive weekly decline against the US Dollar with USD/JPY surging to fresh multi-month highs on the back of the Fed rate decision. The rally takes price into a critical pivot zone and while the broader outlook remains constructive, we’re looking for possible inflection here in the days ahead. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart into the close of the year.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we highlighted potential for a larger correction within the September uptrend in USD/JPY while noting that, “From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards 150 IF reached. Ultimately, we are looking for an exhaustion low ahead of 148 for the September rally to remain viable with a breach / close above 154.34 needed to mark uptrend resumption.” Price plunged nearly 5.2% off the November highs with USD/JPY registering an intraday low at 148.64 into the monthly open before rebounding.

The US Dollar is now poised to mark a third consecutive weekly advance with the recovery extending more than 6.1% off the December low on the heels of the FOMC rate decision. The rally takes USD/JPY towards a major resistance hurdle just higher at 157.17/89- a region defined by the 78.6% retracement of the yearly range and the July breakdown close. Note that the 2020 parallel converges on this zone over the next few weeks and further highlight the technical significance of this threshold.

Initial weekly support now rests back at the 1986 low / 1998 & 2022 high at 151.90-152 and is backed closely by the 52-week moving average (currently ~151.16). Broader bullish invalidation now raised to the 2022 high-close / 2023 high-week close (HWC) at 148.73-149.60- a break / close below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger reversal is underway. Ultimately, a break below the 61.8% retracement at 146.29 would be needed to put the bears in control.

A topside breach / close above this key pivot zone exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the upper parallel (blue slope near 159.50s) and the 1990 high / 2024 HWC at 160.40/73. Ultimately, a close above the swing highs at 161.95 would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the multi-year uptrend in USD/JPY (look for a larger reaction there IF reached).

Click the website link below to get our exclusive Guide to USD/JPY trading in Q4 2024.

cityindex.com

USD JPY Q4 2024 Market Outlook - City Index AU

After a big unwind in the “Yen Carry Trade” in Q3, interest rates in the US will be one of the most important drivers for USD/JPY in Q4.

Bottom line: The USD/JPY rally is now approaching major technical resistance, and the focus is on possible inflection into this threshold. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a test of 157.16/89- losses should be limited to 152 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above this pivot zone needed to mark resumption of the September uptrend.

Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data tomorrow with the Consumer Price Expenditure (PCE) expected to show a slight uptick to 2.9% y/y in November. Stay nimble into the release watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

— Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

cityindex.com

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Fed Breakout Testing Key Resistance

USD/JPY surged post-FOMC with the bulls charging towards a major pivot-zone at uptrend resistance. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

1 post - 1 participant

Read full topic

RSS Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Fed Breakout Testing Key Resistance

Currently reading: RSS Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Fed Breakout Testing Key Resistance

Crax Bot

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly / Daily Trade Levels​

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly​

USD JPY Q4 2024 Market Outlook - City Index AU​

USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases​

Active Weekly Technical Charts​

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Fed Breakout Testing Key Resistance​

"S'all Good, Man."​

"Perfection Is The Enemy Of Perfectly Adequate."​

"Money Is The Point!"​

"I Travel In Worlds You Can't Even Imagine."​

"Say Nothing, You Understand? Get A Lawyer!"​

“Confidence is good. Facts on your side, better.” ​

“Facts are facts.”​

“Sometimes the good guys win.”​

“I’m not good at building shit, you know? I’m excellent at tearing it down.”​

“Money is not beside the point… Money is the point.”​

“Whoa, whoa. Hold up. What the hell happened to you? I get it, the first rule of Fight Club, right?”​

“A good magician never reveals his secrets.”​

“Got to look successful to be successful.”​

“The lesson is, if you’re gonna be a criminal, do your homework.” ​

“If I had to do it all over again, I would maybe do some things differently. I just thought you should know that.”​

“Some men aren't looking for anything logical. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.”​

"Ernest Hemingway once wrote, "The world is a fine place and worth fighting for." I agree with the second part."​

“There’s no better way to destroy someone’s life than to uncover their secrets.”​

“Hackers are breaking the systems for profit. Before, it was about intellectual curiosity and pursuit of knowledge and thrill, and now hacking is big business.”​

“Hackers often describe what they do as playfully creative problem-solving.”​

“Computer hackers do not need to know each other’s real names, or even live on the same continent, to steal millions in mere hours."​

“While many hackers have the knowledge, skills, and tools to attack computer systems, they generally lack the motivation to cause violence or severe economic or social harm.”​

“Very smart people are often tricked by hackers, by phishing. I don’t exclude myself from that. It’s about being smarter than a hacker. Not about being smart.”​

“At the end of the day, my goal was to be the best hacker.”​

“Humiliation is the favorite currency of the hacker.”​

“The hacker didn’t succeed through sophistication. Rather he poked at obvious places, trying to enter through unlocked doors. Persistence, not wizardry, let him through.”​

"Rules. Without Them We Live With The Animals.”​

“Consider This A Professional Courtesy.”​

"I've Lived My Life My Way, And I'll Die My Way."​

"You stabbed the devil in the back, and forced him back into the life that he had just left."​

"You Want A War, Or Do You Want To Just Give Me A Gun?"​

"Leave one wolf alive and the sheep are never safe."​

"When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground."​

"It's not easy to see something that’s never been before: A good world."​

"I believe in second chances. I don't believe in third chances."​

"If you only trust the people you grew up with, you won't make many allies."​

"A man with no motive is a man no one suspects. Always keep your foes confused: If they don't know who you are, what you want—they can't know what you plan to do next."​

"Never forget what you are, the rest of the world will not. Wear it like armor and it can never be used to hurt you."​

"I try to know as many people as I can. You never know which one you'll need."​

"It's hard to put a leash on a dog once you've put a crown on its head."​

“Everything before the word ‘but’ is horseshit.”​

“A lion doesn’t concern himself with the opinions of a sheep.”​

“Nothing FUCKS you harder than time.”​

“You pray for rain, you gotta deal with the mud too. That’s a part of it.”​

“I’d be more frightened by not using whatever abilities I’d been given.”​

“Luck is where opportunity meets preparation.”​

“If you have an enemy, then learn and know your enemy, don’t just be mad at him or her.”​

“Every failed experiment is one step closer to success.”​

When you work on a computer your hands travel 20 kilometres a day!​

Fugaku supercomputer is the world’s fastest computer. The $1-billion supercomputer has 7,630,848 cores, requires 29,899 kilowatts of electricity, and can execute 442,010 teraFLOPs.​

“Every day, about 317 million new viruses are discovered.​

“Microsoft’s founder, the infamous Bill Gates, was actually a college dropout."​

Did you know?​

“On average, a human blinks 20 times per minute, but using a computer reduces it to 7."​

Did you know?​

“The most common password for a computer and social media platforms is 123456."​

Did you know?​

“There are eight varieties of computers: mainframe, supercomputer, workstation, personal computer, Apple Macintosh, laptop, tablet, and smartphone."​

Did you know?​

“Linux leads the industry as it is used by Google, Facebook, Twitter, and Amazon."​

Did you know?​

“NASA computers were hijacked by a 15-year-old, resulting in a 21-day halt."​

Did you know?​

“You may heat a room with Gaming PCs more effectively than a heater."​

Did you know?​

“Physical money accounts for just around 10% of global cash, while the rest is stored on computers."​

Did you know?​

“YouTube actually started as a dating website." (Oh crap xD)​

Did you know?​

“Before they could progress as stable brands, Microsoft, HP, and Apple began manufacturing computers in their Garages."​

Did you know?​

Currently reading:
RSS Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Fed Breakout Testing Key Resistance

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly / Daily Trade Levels

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

USD JPY Q4 2024 Market Outlook - City Index AU

USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases

Active Weekly Technical Charts

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Fed Breakout Testing Key Resistance

"S'all Good, Man."

"Perfection Is The Enemy Of Perfectly Adequate."

"Money Is The Point!"

"I Travel In Worlds You Can't Even Imagine."

"Say Nothing, You Understand? Get A Lawyer!"

“Confidence is good. Facts on your side, better.”

“Facts are facts.”

“Sometimes the good guys win.”

“I’m not good at building shit, you know? I’m excellent at tearing it down.”

“Money is not beside the point… Money is the point.”

“Whoa, whoa. Hold up. What the hell happened to you? I get it, the first rule of Fight Club, right?”

“A good magician never reveals his secrets.”

“Got to look successful to be successful.”

“The lesson is, if you’re gonna be a criminal, do your homework.”

“If I had to do it all over again, I would maybe do some things differently. I just thought you should know that.”

“Some men aren't looking for anything logical. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.”

"Ernest Hemingway once wrote, "The world is a fine place and worth fighting for." I agree with the second part."

“There’s no better way to destroy someone’s life than to uncover their secrets.”

“Hackers are breaking the systems for profit. Before, it was about intellectual curiosity and pursuit of knowledge and thrill, and now hacking is big business.”

“Hackers often describe what they do as playfully creative problem-solving.”

“Computer hackers do not need to know each other’s real names, or even live on the same continent, to steal millions in mere hours."

“While many hackers have the knowledge, skills, and tools to attack computer systems, they generally lack the motivation to cause violence or severe economic or social harm.”

“Very smart people are often tricked by hackers, by phishing. I don’t exclude myself from that. It’s about being smarter than a hacker. Not about being smart.”

“At the end of the day, my goal was to be the best hacker.”

“Humiliation is the favorite currency of the hacker.”

“The hacker didn’t succeed through sophistication. Rather he poked at obvious places, trying to enter through unlocked doors. Persistence, not wizardry, let him through.”

"Rules. Without Them We Live With The Animals.”

“Consider This A Professional Courtesy.”

"I've Lived My Life My Way, And I'll Die My Way."

"You stabbed the devil in the back, and forced him back into the life that he had just left."

"You Want A War, Or Do You Want To Just Give Me A Gun?"

"Leave one wolf alive and the sheep are never safe."

"When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground."

"It's not easy to see something that’s never been before: A good world."

"I believe in second chances. I don't believe in third chances."

"If you only trust the people you grew up with, you won't make many allies."

"A man with no motive is a man no one suspects. Always keep your foes confused: If they don't know who you are, what you want—they can't know what you plan to do next."

"Never forget what you are, the rest of the world will not. Wear it like armor and it can never be used to hurt you."

"I try to know as many people as I can. You never know which one you'll need."

"It's hard to put a leash on a dog once you've put a crown on its head."

“Everything before the word ‘but’ is horseshit.”

“A lion doesn’t concern himself with the opinions of a sheep.”

“Nothing FUCKS you harder than time.”

“You pray for rain, you gotta deal with the mud too. That’s a part of it.”

“I’d be more frightened by not using whatever abilities I’d been given.”

“Luck is where opportunity meets preparation.”

“If you have an enemy, then learn and know your enemy, don’t just be mad at him or her.”

“Every failed experiment is one step closer to success.”

When you work on a computer your hands travel 20 kilometres a day!

Fugaku supercomputer is the world’s fastest computer. The $1-billion supercomputer has 7,630,848 cores, requires 29,899 kilowatts of electricity, and can execute 442,010 teraFLOPs.

“Every day, about 317 million new viruses are discovered.

“Microsoft’s founder, the infamous Bill Gates, was actually a college dropout."

Did you know?

“On average, a human blinks 20 times per minute, but using a computer reduces it to 7."

Did you know?

“The most common password for a computer and social media platforms is 123456."

Did you know?

“There are eight varieties of computers: mainframe, supercomputer, workstation, personal computer, Apple Macintosh, laptop, tablet, and smartphone."

Did you know?

“Linux leads the industry as it is used by Google, Facebook, Twitter, and Amazon."

Did you know?

“NASA computers were hijacked by a 15-year-old, resulting in a 21-day halt."

Did you know?

“You may heat a room with Gaming PCs more effectively than a heater."

Did you know?

“Physical money accounts for just around 10% of global cash, while the rest is stored on computers."

Did you know?

“YouTube actually started as a dating website." (Oh crap xD)

Did you know?

“Before they could progress as stable brands, Microsoft, HP, and Apple began manufacturing computers in their Garages."

Did you know?

“For every 12 million email spams, only one gets a reply."

Did you know?