The Mexican central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 10% from 10.25%.
- The cut was as expected
- The decision was unanimous
- Looking ahead, the board expects that the inflationary environment will to keep cutting reference rate in view of the progress on disinflation, larger downward adjustments could be considered in some meetings, albeit maintaining a restrictive stance
- Headline inflation expected to converge to target in Q3 of 2026.
- Balance of the risks for the trajectory of inflation within the forecast horizon remains bias to the upside.
- Forecast Q4 2024 average annual headline inflation at 4.6% versus previous forecast of 4.7%.
- Forecast Q4 2025 average annual headline inflation at 3.3% versus previous forecast of 3.0%.
- The balance of risks to growth of economic activity remains bias to the downside.
- In view of the progress on disinflation, larger downward adjustments could be considered in some meetings, howbeit maintaining a restrictive stance.
- Following the significant weakness observed in the past three quarters, the Mexican economy registered a greater rate of expansion during the third quarter of 2024
- Actions will be implemented in such a way that they reference rate remains consistent at all times with the trajectory needed to enable an orderly and sustained convergence of headline inflation to the 3% target during the forecast period.
- Core inflation trajectory is anticipated to continue decreasing.
- Looking ahead, headline and core inflation are still present to follow a downward trend
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price has moved back down to test its 100 and 200 bar moving averages on that chart at 20.3026 and 20.2729 respectively. Move below those levels and it opens the door for a return to a swing area near 20.0641 and 20.1499.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at
www.forexlive.com.
