Wall Street indices are just not on the same page at the moment, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high, while the S&P 500 trading sideways and the Dow chalks up its worst daily bearish streak in 12 years. And that’s not good for the ASX.
By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
The general theme for flash PMIs from Europe, Asia and the US on Monday was that manufacturing contracted faster than expected while services expanded at a faster pace. But it was the US services flash PMI that came out on top, rising to a 38-month high of 58.5. Firm’s expectations for output over the next year were also higher, thanks to growth optimism amid a new Trump administration. That this comes on the eve of the last FOMC meeting of the year serves as a fresh reminder that the US economy remains stronger, shows the potential to remains strong. And with that can come more inflation and a less dovish Fed.
Still, the three major US indices are simply not on the same page at the moment. The Nasdaq 100 surged to its latest record high on Monday, with the front-month futures contract tapping 22k for its first time in history. Prices are accelerating away from the 10 and 20-day EMAs with an extra show of confidence.
While the S&P 500 also traded higher, it remains stuck in a sideways consolidation just off its record high. The trend is clearly bullish, but it is not ready to resume its trend ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. Still, it is holding above its 20-day EMA and closed above the 10-day EMA.
Meanwhile, Dow Jones futures were lower for an eight consecutive day which marks its most bearish daily sequence since August 2011. Now sitting at a 3-week low, it isn’t showing any obvious signs of trough yet. And given the ASX 200 is tracking the Dow more closely than the S&P at present, that should concern ASX bulls.
Click the website link below to get our exclusive Guide to index trading in Q4 2024.
forex.com
Fed rate cuts alone may not be enough to keep driving US indices higher in Q4 if traders sniff out a recession on the horizon in 2025.
The daily chart on the left shows the strong correlation between the Dow Jones and ASX 200 at present. It seems the ASX wants to retest its 100-day EMA (8192). And with such a strong bearish trend on the 1-hour chart, bears could seek to fade into moves towards the 10n or 20-day hour EMA in anticipation of a move lower to the 8200 handle.
View the full economic calendar
– Written by Matt Simpson
Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge
forex.com
Wall Street indices are just not on the same page at the moment, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high, while the S&P 500 trading sideways and the Dow chalks up its worst daily bearish streak in 12 years. And that's not good for the ASX.
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
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By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
The general theme for flash PMIs from Europe, Asia and the US on Monday was that manufacturing contracted faster than expected while services expanded at a faster pace. But it was the US services flash PMI that came out on top, rising to a 38-month high of 58.5. Firm’s expectations for output over the next year were also higher, thanks to growth optimism amid a new Trump administration. That this comes on the eve of the last FOMC meeting of the year serves as a fresh reminder that the US economy remains stronger, shows the potential to remains strong. And with that can come more inflation and a less dovish Fed.
Still, the three major US indices are simply not on the same page at the moment. The Nasdaq 100 surged to its latest record high on Monday, with the front-month futures contract tapping 22k for its first time in history. Prices are accelerating away from the 10 and 20-day EMAs with an extra show of confidence.
While the S&P 500 also traded higher, it remains stuck in a sideways consolidation just off its record high. The trend is clearly bullish, but it is not ready to resume its trend ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. Still, it is holding above its 20-day EMA and closed above the 10-day EMA.
Meanwhile, Dow Jones futures were lower for an eight consecutive day which marks its most bearish daily sequence since August 2011. Now sitting at a 3-week low, it isn’t showing any obvious signs of trough yet. And given the ASX 200 is tracking the Dow more closely than the S&P at present, that should concern ASX bulls.
Click the website link below to get our exclusive Guide to index trading in Q4 2024.
Indices Q4 2024 Market Outlook - FOREX.com US
Fed rate cuts alone may not be enough to keep driving US indices higher in Q4 if traders sniff out a recession on the horizon in 2025.
ASX 200 futures (SPI 200) technical analysis
The daily chart on the left shows the strong correlation between the Dow Jones and ASX 200 at present. It seems the ASX wants to retest its 100-day EMA (8192). And with such a strong bearish trend on the 1-hour chart, bears could seek to fade into moves towards the 10n or 20-day hour EMA in anticipation of a move lower to the 8200 handle.
Economic events in focus (AEDT)
- 10:30 – AU consumer sentiment (Westpac)
- 11:00 – NZ economic forecast, budget balance, debt forecast (NZ Treasury)
- 11:30 – SG non-oil exports
- 18:00 – UK earnings, claimant count, employment change, unemployment rate
- 20:00 – DE Ifo business sentiment
- 21:00 – EU and DE ZEW economic sentiment
- 00:30 – US retail sales
- 00:30 – CA CPI
- 01:15 – US industrial production, manufacturing production, capacity utilisation
View the full economic calendar
– Written by Matt Simpson
Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge
Nasdaq’s record high scoffs at Dow’s worst run in 12 years, ASX follows
Wall Street indices are just not on the same page at the moment, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high, while the S&P 500 trading sideways and the Dow chalks up its worst daily bearish streak in 12 years. And that's not good for the ASX.
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
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