NZIER is the new Zealand Institute of Economic Research. The NZIER Consensus Forecasts are an average of New Zealand economic forecasts compiled from a survey of financial and economic agencies. These are not NZIER's forecasts.
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As part of the most recent set of forecasts is this for the New Zealand dollar:
More broadly, summary of NZIER Consensus Forecasts Highlights
Economic Growth:
- 2025 Outlook: Sluggish growth expected through March 2025, with GDP growth improving to 2.2% in the following year.
- Economic activity remains soft in the near term, as indicated by BusinessNZ’s PMI, PSI, and NZIER’s business surveys.
- Growth is anticipated to pick up beyond 2025, driven by lower interest rates.
Household Spending:
- Forecasts revised higher due to:
- Many households fixing shorter-term mortgages, anticipating lower interest rates.
- Over half of mortgages are due for repricing within six months, potentially reducing repayments.
- Income tax cuts are expected to boost discretionary spending.
Residential Investment:
- Outlook revised upwards as lower interest rates are expected to support recovery in the housing market.
Exports:
- Post-2025 export growth revised higher:
- Strengthening commodity prices, especially dairy, to support export performance.
- Global food supply constraints expected to benefit New Zealand exports.
- Risks: Potential negative impacts of U.S. trade policy could be mitigated by China's economic stimulus package.
Inflation:
- CPI inflation forecast for March 2025 revised down to 2.1%, within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) 1–3% target band.
- Inflation expected to stabilize around the 2% mid-point in the coming years.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at
www.forexlive.com.
