RSS - The US treasury to auction $13B of 20-year bonds at the top of the hour

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Tuesday at 10:42 PM

The US treasury will auction $13B of 20-year bonds at 1 PM ET. The last auction of the issue was sold at a high yield of 4.68% The current yield is just below that level at 4.653% ahead of the auction.

BMO has outlined the Pros and Cons heading into the auction:

Pros

20s have sold off nearly 30 bp since the release of the November payrolls report on December 6th. The sharp backup in rates on limited, new fundamental information may translate to a stronger dip-buying bias.
December is a seasonally positive month for 20-year supply. Since the newest bond's introduction in 2020, three of the four auctions stopped-through.
The unemployment rate is once again on the upswing and 0.8 pp off the cycle low. Moreover, November’s core-PCE move is tracking at +0.1% MoM (albeit a high +0.1%) in a trend sure to be welcomed by the FOMC.
The strength of the September/October data has faded, and the cooling trend seen over the summer months has largely resumed in November.

Cons

The last three consecutive 20-year auctions tailed, and by an average of 2.2 bp.
November's 20-year refunding auction drew very weak demand and tailed by an impressive 3.1 bp – the second largest on-record behind the 3.3 bp tail in February 2024. Further, non-dealers took just 77.4% of the issue, the smallest end-user allocation at a refunding auction in more than three years.
The event risk posed by tomorrow's FOMC events may keep a meaningful contingent of otherwise would-be buyers on the sidelines.
The 10s/20s/30s cash butterfly is trading at some of its richest levels since the beginning of the summer which detracts from the relative value case for 20s compared to the wings.

Below are the 6-month averages for the major components. The auction result will be compared to the averages to determine relative strength or weakness of the auction.

Tail: 6-month average 0.6bps
Bid-to-Cover: 6-month average 2.57x
Dealers: 6-month average 13.3%
Directs ( a measure of domestic demand): 6-month average 15.3%
Indirects (a measure of international demand): 6-month average 71.4%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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RSS The US treasury to auction $13B of 20-year bonds at the top of the hour

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“Hackers often describe what they do as playfully creative problem-solving.”​

“Computer hackers do not need to know each other’s real names, or even live on the same continent, to steal millions in mere hours."​

“While many hackers have the knowledge, skills, and tools to attack computer systems, they generally lack the motivation to cause violence or severe economic or social harm.”​

“Very smart people are often tricked by hackers, by phishing. I don’t exclude myself from that. It’s about being smarter than a hacker. Not about being smart.”​

“At the end of the day, my goal was to be the best hacker.”​

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"I try to know as many people as I can. You never know which one you'll need."​

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Fugaku supercomputer is the world’s fastest computer. The $1-billion supercomputer has 7,630,848 cores, requires 29,899 kilowatts of electricity, and can execute 442,010 teraFLOPs.​

“Every day, about 317 million new viruses are discovered.​

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“Physical money accounts for just around 10% of global cash, while the rest is stored on computers."​

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“YouTube actually started as a dating website." (Oh crap xD)​

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“Before they could progress as stable brands, Microsoft, HP, and Apple began manufacturing computers in their Garages."​

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“For every 12 million email spams, only one gets a reply."​

Did you know?​

“Banks and other corporate giants hire white hats or “good hackers” to help fix security issues and prevent system infiltration."​

Did you know?​

“If Earth stopped rotating for 1 second, everyone would die."​

Did you know?​

Currently reading:
RSS The US treasury to auction $13B of 20-year bonds at the top of the hour

"S'all Good, Man."

"Perfection Is The Enemy Of Perfectly Adequate."

"Money Is The Point!"

"I Travel In Worlds You Can't Even Imagine."

"Say Nothing, You Understand? Get A Lawyer!"

“Confidence is good. Facts on your side, better.”

“Facts are facts.”

“Sometimes the good guys win.”

“I’m not good at building shit, you know? I’m excellent at tearing it down.”

“Money is not beside the point… Money is the point.”

“Whoa, whoa. Hold up. What the hell happened to you? I get it, the first rule of Fight Club, right?”

“A good magician never reveals his secrets.”

“Got to look successful to be successful.”

“The lesson is, if you’re gonna be a criminal, do your homework.”

“If I had to do it all over again, I would maybe do some things differently. I just thought you should know that.”

“Some men aren't looking for anything logical. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.”

"Ernest Hemingway once wrote, "The world is a fine place and worth fighting for." I agree with the second part."

“There’s no better way to destroy someone’s life than to uncover their secrets.”

“Hackers are breaking the systems for profit. Before, it was about intellectual curiosity and pursuit of knowledge and thrill, and now hacking is big business.”

“Hackers often describe what they do as playfully creative problem-solving.”

“Computer hackers do not need to know each other’s real names, or even live on the same continent, to steal millions in mere hours."

“While many hackers have the knowledge, skills, and tools to attack computer systems, they generally lack the motivation to cause violence or severe economic or social harm.”

“Very smart people are often tricked by hackers, by phishing. I don’t exclude myself from that. It’s about being smarter than a hacker. Not about being smart.”

“At the end of the day, my goal was to be the best hacker.”

“Humiliation is the favorite currency of the hacker.”

“The hacker didn’t succeed through sophistication. Rather he poked at obvious places, trying to enter through unlocked doors. Persistence, not wizardry, let him through.”

"Rules. Without Them We Live With The Animals.”

“Consider This A Professional Courtesy.”

"I've Lived My Life My Way, And I'll Die My Way."

"You stabbed the devil in the back, and forced him back into the life that he had just left."

"You Want A War, Or Do You Want To Just Give Me A Gun?"

"Leave one wolf alive and the sheep are never safe."

"When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground."

"It's not easy to see something that’s never been before: A good world."

"I believe in second chances. I don't believe in third chances."

"If you only trust the people you grew up with, you won't make many allies."

"A man with no motive is a man no one suspects. Always keep your foes confused: If they don't know who you are, what you want—they can't know what you plan to do next."

"Never forget what you are, the rest of the world will not. Wear it like armor and it can never be used to hurt you."

"I try to know as many people as I can. You never know which one you'll need."

"It's hard to put a leash on a dog once you've put a crown on its head."

“Everything before the word ‘but’ is horseshit.”

“A lion doesn’t concern himself with the opinions of a sheep.”

“Nothing FUCKS you harder than time.”

“You pray for rain, you gotta deal with the mud too. That’s a part of it.”

“I’d be more frightened by not using whatever abilities I’d been given.”

“Luck is where opportunity meets preparation.”

“If you have an enemy, then learn and know your enemy, don’t just be mad at him or her.”

“Every failed experiment is one step closer to success.”

When you work on a computer your hands travel 20 kilometres a day!

Fugaku supercomputer is the world’s fastest computer. The $1-billion supercomputer has 7,630,848 cores, requires 29,899 kilowatts of electricity, and can execute 442,010 teraFLOPs.

“Every day, about 317 million new viruses are discovered.

“Microsoft’s founder, the infamous Bill Gates, was actually a college dropout."

Did you know?

“On average, a human blinks 20 times per minute, but using a computer reduces it to 7."

Did you know?

“The most common password for a computer and social media platforms is 123456."

Did you know?

“There are eight varieties of computers: mainframe, supercomputer, workstation, personal computer, Apple Macintosh, laptop, tablet, and smartphone."

Did you know?

“Linux leads the industry as it is used by Google, Facebook, Twitter, and Amazon."

Did you know?

“NASA computers were hijacked by a 15-year-old, resulting in a 21-day halt."

Did you know?

“You may heat a room with Gaming PCs more effectively than a heater."

Did you know?

“Physical money accounts for just around 10% of global cash, while the rest is stored on computers."

Did you know?

“YouTube actually started as a dating website." (Oh crap xD)

Did you know?

“Before they could progress as stable brands, Microsoft, HP, and Apple began manufacturing computers in their Garages."

Did you know?

“For every 12 million email spams, only one gets a reply."

Did you know?

“Banks and other corporate giants hire white hats or “good hackers” to help fix security issues and prevent system infiltration."

Did you know?

“If Earth stopped rotating for 1 second, everyone would die."

Did you know?

“If someone made a sound of 1100db or larger a black hole would form sucking in our whole solar system."

“People shouldn't be afraid of their government. Governments should be afraid of their people.”