UPCOMING EVENTS:
- Monday: China Retail Sales and Industrial Production, Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs.
- Tuesday: UK Employment report, Canada CPI, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, US NAHB Housing Market Index.
- Wednesday: UK CPI, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, FOMC Policy Decision, New Zealand Q3 GDP.
- Thursday: BoJ Policy Decision, BoE Policy Decision, US Final Q3 GDP, US Jobless Claims.
- Friday: Japan CPI, PBoC LPR, UK Retail Sales, Canada Retail Sales, US Core PCE.
Monday
Monday will be the Flash PMIs Day with a particular focus on the Eurozone, UK and US PMIs as they could influence the market’s expectations around interest rates.
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 45.3 expected vs. 45.2 prior.
- Eurozone Services PMI: 49.5 expected vs. 49.5 prior.
- UK Manufacturing PMI: 48.2 expected vs. 48.0 prior.
- UK Services PMI: 51.0 expected vs. 50.8 prior.
- US Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 expected vs. 49.7 prior.
- US Services PMI: 55.7 expected vs. 56.1 prior.
Tuesday
The UK Employment in the three months to October is expected at -12K vs. 219K prior, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.
The Average Earnings Ex-Bonus is expected at 5.0% vs. 4.8% prior, while the Average Earning including Bonus is seen at 4.6% vs. 4.3% prior.
This report is unlikely to change the market’s expectations for the BoE to remain on hold this week unless we see huge downside deviations from the forecasts, especially on the wage growth side.
The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.0% vs. 2.0% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.1% vs. 0.4% prior. The Trimmed-Mean CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs. 2.6% prior, while the Median CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.4% vs. 2.5% prior.
The BoC recently
dropped the line saying “if the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further", which suggests that we reached the peak dovishness and the central bank will now switch to 25 bps cuts and will slow the pace of easing.
The US Retail Sales M/M is expected at 0.5% vs. 0.4% prior, while the ex-Autos M/M measure is seen at 0.4% vs. 0.1% prior. The focus will be on the Control Group M/M figure which is expected at 0.4% vs. -0.1% prior.
Consumer spending has been stable which is something you would expect given the positive real wage growth and resilient labour market. We’ve also been seeing a strong pickup in consumer sentiment/confidence reports which suggest that consumers’ financial situation is stable/improving.
Wednesday
The UK CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs. 2.3% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.1% vs. 0.6% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.6% vs. 3.3% prior, while the Services CPI Y/Y is seen at 5.1% vs. 5.0% prior.
As previously mentioned, the data is unlikely to change the market’s expectations for the BoE to remain on hold this week unless we see huge downside deviations from the forecasts. The market sees an 87% probability of no change at this week’s BoE’s decision and roughly three 25 bps cuts in 2025.
The Fed is expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the FFR to 4.25-4.50%. We will also get the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) where growth and inflation should be revised upwards, and the Dot Plot will likely show two rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Powell should acknowledge the strength in the US data and announce a slowdown in the pace of easing.
This should be already priced in as the market expects just two rate cuts in 2025 with the first one coming in March at the earliest. Therefore, market participants will look for deviations from the expectations and the data in Q1 2025 will have the final say.
Thursday
The BoJ is expected to keep interest rates unchanged with the market pricing a 77% probability for such a move. A couple of weeks ago a rate hike was the most probable action but the chances dwindled as the JPY strengthened.
The data has been in favour of a hike but not really screaming for it. The recent “leaks” talked about the BoJ seeing little cost in waiting, so the market switched its focus to the January’s meeting, although there are higher chances for a hike in March.
The focus will be on the forward guidance with the market participants taking clues from Governor Ueda’s Press Conference.
The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.75%. Dhingra is expected to be the lone dissenter. The recent inflation data came on the hotter side and BoE speakers seem to be in favour of “gradual” easing which point to a rate cut every quarter, as touted already by
Governor Bailey.
The US Jobless Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.
Initial Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims continue to hover around the cycle highs.
This week Initial Claims are expected at 229K vs. 240K prior, while there’s no consensus for Continuing Claims at the time of writing although the prior release saw an increase to 1886K vs. 1871K prior.
Friday
The Japanese Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs. 2.3% prior. We saw already the Tokyo Core CPI beating expectations, so it shouldn’t influence market expectations too much although an upside surprise after a potentially hawkish BoJ hold could give the JPY a boost.
There are no expectations for the LPR setting by the PBoC although given the recent shift announced by the Politburo, we could see big rate cuts which would be the first concrete step for “moderately loose” monetary policy.
The US PCE Y/Y is expected at 2.5% vs. 2.3% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior. The Core PCE Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs. 2.8% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.1% vs. 0.3% prior.
Forecasters can reliably estimate the PCE once the CPI and PPI are out, so the market already knows what to expect. Therefore, unless we see a deviation from the expected numbers, it shouldn’t affect the current market’s pricing.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at
www.forexlive.com.
