RSS Weekly update on interest rate expectations

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 RSS Weekly update on interest rate expectations

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Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed 2025: 36 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB 2025: 110 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE 2025: 47 bps (50% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC 2025: 49 bps (50% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA 2025: 67 bps (60% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ 2025: 118 bps (88% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB 2025: 48 bps (84% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ 2025: 43 bps (50% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
 
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