In the European session, the main event will be the BoE Policy Decision where the central bank is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged. In the American session, the focus will switch to the US Jobless Claims data as it's a timelier indicator of the labour market.
We saw a spike recently, but we've seen many such spikes in the past two years. We will likely need Initial Claims to spike above 270K to trigger some risk aversion. We will also get the final US Q3 GDP reading but the market won't care about that.
12:00 GMT/07:00 ET - BoE Policy Decision
The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.75%. Dhingra is expected to be the lone dissenter. The recent inflation data came on the hotter side and BoE speakers seem to be in favour of “gradual” easing which point to a rate cut every quarter, as touted already by
Governor Bailey. The market, on the other hand, is pricing just two 25 bps cuts in 2025.
13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US Jobless Claims
The US Jobless Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.
Initial Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims continue to hover around the cycle highs. This week, Initial Claims are expected at 230K vs. 240K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1890K vs. 1886K prior.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at
www.forexlive.com.
