UK GDP came in weaker than expected -0.1% for the month versus +0.1% estimate. Construction output, industrial production, manufacturing production was also weaker and the trade balance had a larger deficit. The declines sent the GBP lower but buyers came in near technical support targets and the price has since rebounded off lows.
The EURUSD is stretching to the upside day after cutting rates by 25 basis points. ECBs Centeno said the decision on Thursday was "absolutely consensual", while ECBs Vas said decisions will be taken meeting by meeting in the data dependent fashion.
In the North American session today, US import (-0.2%) and export prices (-0.2%) will be released at 8:30 AM. Canada's manufacturing sales (+1.3%), and wholesale trade (+0.5%) for October will also be released at 8:30 AM along with capacity utilization for Q3.
As the North American session begins, US stocks are higher with the futures implying
- Dow is up around 65 points,
- S&P is up 24 points, and the
- NASDAQ is up 189 points.
Broadcom and Costco announced their quarterly earnings after the close and their shares are higher in premarket trading
US yields are up for the fifth consecutive day as traders adjust for and less stimulative that in 2025:
- 2 year 4.207%, up 2.1 basis points. The two year yield is up 10 basis points this week.
- 5 year4.203%, up 2.8 basis points. The five year yield is up 17.2 basis points this week.
- 10 year 4.347%, up 2.3 basis points. The 10 year yield is up 19.6 basis points this week
- 30 year 4.565%, up 1.7 basis points. The 30 year yield is up 23.0 basis points this week
In the commodity space:
- Crude oil is up $0.58 or 0.83% and $70.60. Crude is up 5.09% this week
- Gold is down $9.88 or -0.37% at $2670.66. Gold is up 1.40% this week
- Silver is down $0.11 or -0.3% at $30.80. Silver is down -0.5% this week
- Bitcoin is trading just above the $100K level at $100,404. Yesterday, the high price moved to $102,582 short of the high price from last week's trading at $103,647. The price bitcoin is down marginally this week
In the forex market, the dollar index (DXY) is little changed at -0.01%:. The US dollar is mixed against the major currencies for the day but is higher for the week.:
- EUR, -0.52%. For the week US dollars higher versus the EUR by 0.66%
- JPY, +0.56%. For the week the US dollar is higher vs the JPY by 2.29%
- GBP, +0.23%. For the week the US dollars versus the GBP higher by 0.69%
- CHF, +0.16%. For the week., the US dollar versus the CHF is higher by 1.73%
- CAD, unchanged. For the week, the US dollar versus the CAD is higher by 0.45%
- AUD, -0.06%. For the week, the US dollar versus the AUD is higher by 0.19%
- NZD +0.14%. For the week, the US dollar versus the NZD is higher by 0.95%
What is moving the three major currency pairs technically. In the video below I outline the technical levels in play including the technical bias, the risks and the targets for your trading.
EURUSD: The EURUSD is up retesting the cluster of MAs to start the US session after bouncing near a swing area target.
USDJPY:The USDJPY broke away from the 50% and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart that had been a ceiling this week. The price is now up testing the 61.8% of the move down from the November high and found a stall at least for the moment.
GBPUSD:The GBPUSD moved lower on weaker UK data but after reaching swing area support and the 50% midpoint of the move up from the 2023 low from the daily chart, the buyers reenterd and pushed the price to swing area resistance.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at
www.forexlive.com.
