In recent weeks, the debates have mostly revolved around Trump, particularly the changes his return to power could bring to the world. And, of course, most are expecting the worst...
One of the main concerns is the possibility of new tariffs being imposed on imports, which could lead to a full-blown trade war, as those affected will not “buy it” and will likely retaliate.
In this context, the US dollar has strengthened, while other currencies,
including the EUR/USD pair, have come under pressure. There was speculation that the euro might return to parity with the dollar.
This Monday, however, the market sharply reversed. It was not because Trump suddenly decided to soften his protectionist stance, even towards friendly nations.
Instead, it seems to have been helped by Trump's recent choice for U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Under his leadership, markets expect less global disruption, which has led to
a drop in the DXY index.
Under Bessent's leadership, investors expect gradual implementation of trade restrictions, negotiations on the size of tariffs, and efforts to stabilize the budget deficit.
The issue is that Trump has a confrontational personality, and few can work with him for long. None of the key officials from his first administration are still with him today, and they have even become enemies.
What can we expect from the markets?
Analysts see only a bright future. For example, Wells Fargo has raised its S&P 500 target for the end of 2025 to 6,500-6,700, up from 6,200-6,400, while Goldman Sachs also expects 6,500 points.
Worryingly, the P/E now stands at 28, down from 24 over the past five years. In other words, the market has become quite expensive, and if it softens, the correction could be more profound.
Another concern is that seven companies now comprise nearly a third of the S&P 500 (concentration risk). The impact could be much greater if something goes wrong with those stocks.
So, while markets are currently very optimistic, we can't rule out the chance of a reversal. It's not guaranteed, but it’s wise not to ignore the possibility entirely. It’s best to be prepared for the worst.
As always, in times of uncertainty or when things don’t go according to plan,
gold could be one of the beneficiaries. Who knows, maybe even BTC could become a safe haven in times of instability.
This article was written by FL Contributors at
www.forexlive.com.
